Israel's CBS all-cause mortality data
Israel's CBS all-cause mortality data
raises serious doubts regarding vaccine efficacy & safety
For Hebrew version: לקריאה בעברית
Of all countries in the world, Israel probably had the best opening terms in dealing with Covid-19 :
Very young population compared to most OECD countries
Single entrance (Ben Gurion Intl. airport)
Advanced & skilled health system
Experience in dealing with crisis situations
Nevertheless, after analyzing the all-cause mortality data published by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), it seems that Israel performed quite poorly. The overall effect of strict lockdowns, shutting down the school system for months, vaccinating 89% of the population at risk and large parts of the younger population - all of these, together with the favorable opening terms, did not yield a favorable outcome.
Monitoring the all-cause mortality data (and not just official Covid-19 death data) is important for two reasons. One, many countries were registering deaths from miscellaneous causes as Covid deaths, even when patients had severe comorbidities that caused their death, and in some cases the main cause of death was unrelated to Covid-19 altogether. This bias was found in many countries, including Israel, and its proportions are unknown.
The second reason is that the measures taken in Israel to protect the population were extreme. Strict lockdowns, school shutdown, halting ambulatory / elective treatments, these actions had caused significant collateral damage which is not considered Covid Deaths. We will cover this later.
Disclaimer
The purpose of this Substack post is to point out possible safety and efficacy issues based on official data from Israel, for further, in-depth analysis. Data manipulation has been kept to a minimum, thus compromising possible accuracy improvements. When studying signals in the magnitude of 140%-200% in the years 2018-2022 it is reasonable to neglect the yearly growth rate of approx. 1.5% in Israel’s population and other possible improvements to data quality. Establishing baseline mortality could also be refined but is enough to serve the purpose of analysing data along time (detecting spikes in mortality rates).
Age-grouped monthly mortality
Notes:
1. Data source: Deaths of Israeli Residents, by day of death, Sex,Population Group and Age, 2023
2. Data for 2021-2023 is not final, and deaths of Israeli residents abroad are excluded.
3. The chart shows the monthly mortality in each age group compared to the average monthly mortality of 2018-2019 (for each age group).
4. Age group ranges (0-19, 20-24…) were taken from CBS data.
5. Mortality above 120% appears in yellow. Mortality above 140% appears in orange. Mortality above 160% appears in red. Mortality above 180% appears in dark red.
6. For comparison purposes, rows were not calculated to represent calendar months, which vary in length. Instead, each figure represents the total no. of deaths for a 30-day period. To avoid losing track of calendar months and to avoid covering only 360 days, the first day of each row is adjusted by multiplying row number by 30.4. This covers the whole year evenly. 1.2018 represents 1.1.2018-30.1.2018 (30 days), 2.2018 represents 31.1.2018-1.3.2018 (30 days) etc.
7. The Meron crowd crush disaster occurred on April 30, 2021. 38 people died on location, 7 more died in hospital. The data for that specific date was adjusted to reflect average deaths for each age group. Therefore, excess mortality shown for 4.2021 in certain age groups is caused by other reasons.
8. No adjustment for population size was performed.
The above chart helps identify excess mortality events for further investigation. The chart shows the monthly mortality in each age group, compared to the average monthly mortality of 2018-2019 of that age group. On the right is the timeline of the vaccination campaign (although no claim is made regarding a connection between excess deaths and vaccines) .
10.2020 shows the first sign of a rise in mortality. It mostly affected the elderly, with no excess mortality in the younger population, and overall, 2020 looks similar to 2018-2019 average (despite Covid-19 and extreme counter-measures).
1.2021-3.2021 shows higher excess mortality in the elderly and also an alarming excess mortality in the younger ages. On 2.2021 the vaccine was approved for ages 16+ and astonishingly, the number of deaths on that month doubled in the 20-24 age group (34 deaths compared to 16.5, the average monthly along 2018-2019). The significant rise appears over time and in adjacent age groups, supporting the claim of a genuine safety signal.
The excess deaths in the younger age groups are likely not due to Covid-19 - the risk group for Covid-19 is age 65+ with comorbidities, and the increase in deaths shown in the elderly age group does not extend to younger ages (45-59) . Logically, the cause is different.
On 2.2021-4.2021 and again on 1.2022-2.2022 the chart clearly shows a safety signal that perfectly fits the risk group of vaccine-induced myocarditis and pericarditis in the 20-24 age group. This is further supported by a weakening signal at higher ages. A strong signal is also to be expected in the 16-19 age group, but unfortunately the CBS chose to include newborn babies and 19-year old soldiers in the same age group (0-19). The data of this age group is practically useless for our cause.
Assuming that at least some of the excess death cases could possibly be related to the vaccine, when weighed against one official known death case from Covid-19 of a healthy person under the age of 50 during 3 years of Covid (according to official MOH Freedom Of Information Act responses), raises serious doubts regarding the risk/benefit factor, the recommendation to vaccinate healthy young individuals, and later to recommend mRNA boosters.
The elderly population (age 70+)
During 2021-2022 89% of the elderly (over-70) population was vaccinated with 2 doses, and 83% with 3 doses or more, according to the IMOH dashboard.
1. The mortality (Y) axis does not start at 0, in order to enable better understanding of the trends.
2. No adjustment to population size was made. A yearly rise in mortality of approx. 1.5% is expected.
In 2019 there is a certain rise in mortality in the elderly. 2020 shows a more significant rise in mortality. With the introduction of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine at the very end of 2020 and vaccination of almost all of the elderly population at risk, 2021 promised to bring the situation back to normal, yet there is a further rise in mortality instead of a dramatic drop as was expected. Just before 2022 the Omicron variant became the prevalent variant in Israel, with higher transmissibility but overall lower fatality rate, as data from other countries show. The third and fourth doses (boosters) were widely available to all of the elderly population. Yet all of these factors are not reflected in the data from Israel - 2022 draws a grim picture, with mortality higher than ever, without any official explanation. In fact, there is a weak signal of elderly deaths after each dose was approved (shown in Chart 1).
The official data raises serious doubts regarding the efficacy of Pfizer’s vaccine, and in Israel’s success in protecting its elderly population in general, whether by vaccination or by other means such as proven drugs and preventive treatments (Vitamin C, D). Instead, false claims were made regarding the effectiveness of common face masks, vaccines, social distancing etc.
All-cause mortality, age-stratified, with vaccination status
Israel, The World’s Lab, has plenty of accurate, digital data and advanced BI capabilities. The Ministry Of Health maintains a centralized registry of each vaccine a person receives, including date and batch number. It would have been very easy for the MOH to prove vaccine safety and efficacy, and to rule out the option of death cases due to vaccinations, either by investigating every young person’s death including performing an autopsy if required, or at least by checking the vaccination status of the deceased and proving that there is no correlation between vaccination date and the time of death.
Such a FOIA request was indeed filed to the MOH a year and a half ago by Mr. David Shuldman. He had asked the MOH for All-cause mortality data, age-stratified, with vaccination status. After filing two petitions to court, the judge ruled that the data must be published. Both parties reached an agreement in court that the MOH will publish the data on data.gov.il website within 60 days. The time period was over but the MOH did not publish the data. On May 31, 2023 Mr. Shuldman and others started protesting daily in front of the MOH in Jerusalem in what they call ‘Protest of the Mice’. We will be analyzing the data once it is published, as the MOH committed to do in court.
Lockdowns and collateral damages
The lockdowns and restrictions in Israel were extreme compared to most countries. For example, during the first lockdown which lasted 6 weeks, citizens were only allowed to travel within 300ft. from their homes, except to purchase vital groceries. Two more lockdowns took place, and the period between lockdowns had harsh restrictions which were similar to what was considered ‘lockdown’ in other countries. Together with an exceptionally long period of school closure, the impact on all parts of society was immense, although it is unclear to what degree. For example, in 2020 158 lonely elderly people were found dead in their homes.
Violence, distress and use of addictive substances grew in 2020 and 2021, as shown in a report published by ELEM society. Below is an infographic poster taken from this report.
In an attempt to protect the elderly, lockdowns had caused increased loneliness and lack of physical exercise possibly leading to increased heart disease, obesity, anorexia, mental disease, stroke and other negative side effects.
During lockdowns there was a significant drop in hospital emergency visits due to patient hesitancy and fear of getting infected with Covid-19, leading to an obvious increased risk of death. Elective treatments were cancelled. Casual check-ups were not performed, leading to delayed discovery of invisible illnesses.
All of the above factors, together with an increase in national debt of approx. 75 Billion USD in 2020 alone (source: Israeli parliament), which would definitely affect the health system in the future, raise serious questions as to the effectiveness of the measures taken.
The mortality (Y) axis does not start at 0, in order to enable better understanding of the trends.
The 100% reference line reflects each country’s average yearly mortality in 2017-2019.
Data source: Statista, Israeli CBS. 2021-2022 data is not final.
A straightforward comparison between Israel and Sweden’s all-cause mortality shows a clear picture of the different approaches in dealing with Covid-19 and their outcomes. Although Sweden has a much older population, did not enforce lockdowns and invested relatively less resources in pandemic control, the average yearly excess mortality in Sweden was 4.7% and Israel - 10.3% (over 3 years). Had we taken Sweden’s dry tinder effect (2019 under-mortality caused excess death in 2020) into account, the difference would have been even bigger.
Conclusion: The overall approach Israel has taken in dealing with Covid-19 brought short- and long-term tragic results. In addition, there is a clear, unexplained rise in mortality at ages 20-44. The possibility of connection to the Covid-19 vaccine must be seriously investigated.
As the WHO chief warns of the next pandemic and embraces global, centralized pandemic response, it is essential for the State of Israel to set up an investigative committee which will perform an in-depth analysis on the tradeoffs and risks/benefits of lockdowns, facemasks, school closure, Covid-19 treatment protocols, and mRNA vaccines. The results of such an analysis will help improve evidence-based decision-making for the whole world when dealing with future pandemics.
Addendum
Excess mortality in Germany at younger ages (research, peer reviewed)
Excess mortality in England at younger ages (review by Dr. John Campbell)
Excess mortality in Australia (review by Dr. John Campbell)
ONS UK data (Dr. John Campbell)
Israeli Ministry of Health’s statement regarding Cardiac Arrest cases (FOIA, translation) :
Item 5 - below is the data for cardiac arrest cases for the years 2018-2020. Note that the information for 2021-2022 does not exist in the ministry. Registration of the cause of death is carried out, according to the death notification, by the CBS and then passed to the MOH. Data for 2021-2022 has not yet been sent to the MOH.
